Osakavs
Fukushima United
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osaka 4-1 Fukushima United
Original prediction
Osaka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 52.5% | 54.7% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.6% | 22.8% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.92 | 22.9% | 22.5% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Osaka
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OsakaWDWDL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Fukushima UnitedLWWDL
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
OsakaFukushima United
50.0Attack61.1
66.7Defence27.8
55.6Form22.2
59.9Power38.9
2.09xG1.10