Osakavs
Avispa Fukuoka
COMPLETEDJapan · J-League Cup · 9/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avispa Fukuoka · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Osaka 1-2 Avispa Fukuoka
Original prediction
Avispa Fukuoka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.28 | 17.2% | 29.1% | 11.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.12 | 22.0% | 29.0% | 7.0 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 60.8% | 41.9% | -18.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Avispa Fukuoka
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Avispa Fukuoka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60