Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Orsomarso 0-0 Tigres FC, with an exact score probability of 34%.
Prediction record
Final result
Orsomarso 0-2 Tigres FC
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.6% | 35.8% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 31.1% | 35.3% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.4% | 28.9% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Projected Score
Orsomarso 0–0 Tigres FC
Exact score probability: 34%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.3%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrsomarsoLWDDW
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Tigres FCLWWWD
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
OrsomarsoTigres FC
28.3Attack30.9
68.3Defence69.1
41.7Form42.0
48.0Power49.2
0.56xG0.54