Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Orsomarso 0-0 Quindio, with an exact score probability of 34%.
Prediction record
Final result
Orsomarso 0-1 Quindio
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 39.4% | 30.6% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.6% | 33.9% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 31.0% | 35.4% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Projected Score
Orsomarso 0–0 Quindio
Exact score probability: 34%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.9%
Model confidence
35.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrsomarsoDLDLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
QuindioWLLDD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
OrsomarsoQuindio
26.7Attack34.4
64.0Defence77.4
36.0Form58.1
44.3Power59.1
0.39xG0.71