Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Orsomarso 0-0 Popayan, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Orsomarso 1-0 Popayan
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.4% | 33.9% | -8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.4% | 32.6% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.35 | 27.2% | 33.5% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Projected Score
Orsomarso 0–0 Popayan
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.6%
Model confidence
33.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrsomarsoLDLDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PopayanDWWWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
OrsomarsoPopayan
25.6Attack42.3
64.1Defence59.0
34.6Form39.7
43.6Power48.5
0.67xG0.84