Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Orsomarso are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Leones FC are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Orsomarso hold an 8.8-point power-rating edge (47.2 v 38.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.3% in the Primera B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60