Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Orsomarso 0-0 Bogota FC, with an exact score probability of 34%.
Prediction record
Final result
Orsomarso 0-1 Bogota FC
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.3% | 35.4% | -8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.9% | 36.5% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 26.8% | 28.1% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Projected Score
Orsomarso 0–0 Bogota FC
Exact score probability: 34%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrsomarsoDWLDL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Bogota FCDDDLW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
OrsomarsoBogota FC
26.2Attack27.5
65.5Defence65.7
36.9Form39.2
45.0Power46.9
0.57xG0.52