Orlando Piratesvs
Mamelodi Sundowns
COMPLETEDSouth-Africa · 8 Cup · 10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orlando Pirates · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orlando Pirates 0-2 Mamelodi Sundowns
Original prediction
Orlando Pirates
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 15:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 33.3% | 44.2% | 10.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.4% | 26.6% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.3% | 29.1% | -7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Orlando Pirates
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Orlando Pirates has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 0 · avg 2.60/0.00
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60