GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 8/19/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-3

Lowconfidence

Orlando City SC are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Chicago Fire are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 21.9-point power-rating edge (36.6 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 8.2% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 82% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chicago Fire

Probability

64.8%

Model confidence

8.2%

Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Orlando City SCLWLWW

GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Chicago FireWWWLL

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Orlando City SCChicago Fire
55.6Attack62.7
13.0Defence54.9
37.0Form56.9
36.6Power58.6
1.53xG3.05
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