Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nardo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-4 (7%), 2-5 (6%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orkla 3-2 Nardo
Original prediction
Nardo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14.11 | 6.4% | 21.0% | 14.6 pts |
| Draw | 8.29 | 10.9% | 19.2% | 8.3 pts |
| Away | 1.10 | 82.6% | 59.8% | -22.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–47%
- 2.2–56%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
Nardo
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
59.8%
Nardo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrklaLLLLD
GF 3 · GA 17 · avg 0.60/3.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
NardoDWWLW
GF 22 · GA 7 · avg 4.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
OrklaNardo
55.6Attack88.9
2.8Defence30.6
27.8Form45.8
31.0Power52.0
2.51xG4.50