Orihuelavs
Lorca Deportiva
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/13/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orihuela · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orihuela 1-0 Lorca Deportiva
Original prediction
Orihuela
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.8% | 38.9% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.9% | 29.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 28.3% | 31.7% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Orihuela
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Orihuela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40