Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orihuela · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orihuela 0-4 Cieza
Original prediction
Orihuela
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.1% | 40.0% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.8% | 28.8% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.1% | 31.1% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Orihuela
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Orihuela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrihuelaLDLWW
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CiezaDLWDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
OrihuelaCieza
66.7Attack33.3
33.3Defence66.7
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.35xG1.15