Orihuelavs
Castellón II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/26/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orihuela · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orihuela 1-4 Castellón II
Original prediction
Orihuela
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.7% | 46.0% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.4% | 25.6% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.97 | 22.8% | 28.3% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Orihuela
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Orihuela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60