Orientalvs
Plaza Colonia
COMPLETEDUruguay · Segunda División · 8/30/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plaza Colonia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Oriental 0-0 Plaza Colonia, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Oriental 2-0 Plaza Colonia
Original prediction
Plaza Colonia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.7% | 29.0% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.84 | 32.0% | 31.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.4% | 39.3% | 7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.9 pts
Projected Score
Oriental 0–0 Plaza Colonia
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Plaza Colonia
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Plaza Colonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60