Uruguay · Segunda División · 9/12/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oriental · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Oriental 1-0 Miramar, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Oriental 1-3 Miramar
Original prediction
Oriental
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.7% | 44.8% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 29.7% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.63 | 25.0% | 25.5% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Projected Score
Oriental 1–0 Miramar
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Oriental
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Oriental has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrientalWLWLW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
MiramarLDDLD
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
OrientalMiramar
43.1Attack29.0
68.1Defence56.5
52.8Form30.4
56.3Power41.0
1.26xG0.48