Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Oriental are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while La Luz are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Oriental hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (52.1 v 47.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.7% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 18% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00