Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Macara · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Orense SC 0-1 Macara, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Orense SC 1-2 Macara
Original prediction
Macara
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.9% | 29.0% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.9% | 28.2% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 29.1% | 42.8% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Projected Score
Orense SC 0–1 Macara
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Macara
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Macara has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Orense SCLWDLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
MacaraLDDLW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Orense SCMacara
38.5Attack42.3
50.0Defence66.7
38.5Form53.8
44.6Power55.3
0.80xG1.20