FC Orenburgvs
Krasnodar
COMPLETEDRussia · Premier League · 9/17/2026, 1:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Krasnodar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
FC Orenburg 0-0 Krasnodar
Original prediction
Krasnodar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.51 | 21.1% | 27.7% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.9% | 26.5% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.77 | 53.9% | 45.9% | -8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.83 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Krasnodar
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Krasnodar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80