Orenburg IIvs
Rubin Kazan 2
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 4 · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orenburg II · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orenburg II 3-3 Rubin Kazan 2
Original prediction
Orenburg II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 56.8% | 54.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.5% | 23.8% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 5.37 | 16.7% | 22.2% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.38 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Orenburg II
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
54.0%
Orenburg II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60