Orenburg IIvs
Nosta
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 4 · 10/25/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orenburg II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orenburg II 5-1 Nosta
Original prediction
Orenburg II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.0% | 46.8% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.7% | 26.8% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 28.4% | 26.4% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Orenburg II
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Orenburg II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40