Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ordino · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ordino 3-2 Carroi
Original prediction
Ordino
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 54.4% | 52.7% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.3% | 23.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.24 | 21.3% | 23.9% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Ordino
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
Ordino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrdinoWLLWW
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
CarroiLLDLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
OrdinoCarroi
40.0Attack13.3
26.7Defence20.0
60.0Form6.7
45.8Power18.5
2.07xG1.20