Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ordabasy · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ordabasy 2-0 Zhenys, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ordabasy 1-1 Zhenys
Original prediction
Ordabasy
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 77.8% | 72.2% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 6.13 | 14.9% | 17.6% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 12.39 | 7.3% | 10.2% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Projected Score
Ordabasy 2–0 Zhenys
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Ordabasy
Probability
72.2%
Model confidence
72.2%
Ordabasy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrdabasyWWWWL
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ZhenysLLLWL
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
OrdabasyZhenys
69.0Attack34.5
76.2Defence54.8
79.8Form38.1
75.6Power44.6
2.20xG0.44