Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ordabasy · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ordabasy 1-0 FC Astana
Original prediction
Ordabasy
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 48.1% | 48.8% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.9% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.61 | 25.2% | 24.3% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Ordabasy
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Ordabasy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OrdabasyLWWWW
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
FC AstanaWWDWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
OrdabasyFC Astana
65.3Attack59.4
75.0Defence65.2
76.4Form65.2
73.0Power63.7
1.50xG0.80