Orange County SCvs
Sacramento Republic
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sacramento Republic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orange County SC 1-1 Sacramento Republic
Original prediction
Sacramento Republic
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.24 | 28.2% | 30.5% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.3% | 27.6% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.06 | 44.5% | 41.9% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.35 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Sacramento Republic
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Sacramento Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80