Orange County SCvs
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/27/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pittsburgh Riverhounds · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orange County SC 1-0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Original prediction
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.88 | 31.6% | 32.8% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.4% | 30.4% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 38.0% | 36.8% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00