Orange County SCvs
Phoenix Rising
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Phoenix Rising · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orange County SC 1-3 Phoenix Rising
Original prediction
Phoenix Rising
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.99 | 30.4% | 37.8% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.0% | 24.3% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 43.5% | 37.9% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Phoenix Rising
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Phoenix Rising has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20