Orange County SCvs
Monterey Bay
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 10/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Orange County SC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Orange County SC 1-2 Monterey Bay
Original prediction
Orange County SC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 48.8% | 50.6% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.1% | 25.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 26.1% | 24.1% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Orange County SC
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Orange County SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80