Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Onsala · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Onsala 2-1 Åstorp
Original prediction
Onsala
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.3% | 49.8% | 7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.7% | 23.0% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 32.9% | 27.2% | -5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Onsala
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Onsala has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OnsalaWLWWL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ÅstorpLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
OnsalaÅstorp
45.8Attack40.3
48.6Defence43.1
41.7Form36.1
46.3Power42.2
1.74xG1.15