Omonia Nicosiavs
Benfica
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Omonia Nicosia 1-4 Benfica
Original prediction
Benfica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.58 | 11.0% | 24.8% | 13.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.48 | 17.2% | 23.8% | 6.5 pts |
| Away | 1.32 | 71.7% | 51.4% | -20.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00