Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Olot 2-2 Ebro
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 41.4% | 36.2% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 29.9% | 30.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 28.7% | 33.1% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.99 · Draw 1.99 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.6%
Model confidence
36.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OlotDLDLL
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EbroLLLWW
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
OlotEbro
50.0Attack41.2
50.0Defence64.7
50.0Form48.0
50.0Power52.7
1.02xG1.02