Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pakhtakor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Olmaliq 1-3 Pakhtakor
Original prediction
Pakhtakor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.45 | 26.3% | 25.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.2% | 26.8% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 47.5% | 47.8% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–114%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Pakhtakor
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Pakhtakor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OlmaliqWDLLW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PakhtakorWDDWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
OlmaliqPakhtakor
46.7Attack56.7
58.3Defence70.0
53.3Form71.7
55.2Power68.2
0.86xG1.34