Oliveirensevs
Penafiel
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penafiel · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oliveirense 1-2 Penafiel
Original prediction
Penafiel
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.31 | 27.3% | 29.1% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.2% | 26.7% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.5% | 44.3% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Penafiel
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Penafiel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80