Oliveirensevs
Mafra
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 9/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oliveirense 2-1 Mafra
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 30.7% | 34.9% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 30.6% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 40.0% | 34.5% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.6%
Model confidence
34.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OliveirenseLWDDL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
MafraWLDWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
OliveirenseMafra
0.0Attack33.3
100.0Defence66.7
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.13xG0.96