Olimpiavs
Sportivo Luqueno
COMPLETEDParaguay · Copa Paraguay · 10/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Olimpia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Olimpia 1-1 Sportivo Luqueno
Original prediction
Olimpia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.3% | 44.0% | -22.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.39 | 20.6% | 25.7% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 6.96 | 13.0% | 30.3% | 17.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.39 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Olimpia
Probability
44.0%
Model confidence
44.0%
Olimpia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60