Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-3
Oldham are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Bolton are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold a 67.5-point power-rating edge (21.1 v 88.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 70.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 70% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
70.3%
Model confidence
70.3%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00