Olanchovs
Estrella Roja
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 10/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Olancho · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Olancho 0-0 Estrella Roja, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Olancho 3-3 Estrella Roja
Original prediction
Olancho
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 01:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.8% | 37.2% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.9% | 31.1% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.4% | 31.7% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.6 pts
Projected Score
Olancho 0–0 Estrella Roja
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Olancho
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Olancho has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OlanchoLDDDD
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Estrella RojaWLLDL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
OlanchoEstrella Roja
26.7Attack66.7
73.3Defence66.7
40.0Form100.0
49.7Power80.3
0.71xG0.79