Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Okzhetpes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Okzhetpes 3-1 Zhenys
Original prediction
Okzhetpes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.42 | 37.2% | 46.7% | 9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.3% | 27.2% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 33.6% | 26.1% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–014%
Predicted outcome
Okzhetpes
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Okzhetpes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OkzhetpesLWWWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ZhenysWLLWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
OkzhetpesZhenys
50.7Attack33.3
54.7Defence61.3
56.0Form42.7
55.5Power47.8
1.29xG0.81