Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ordabasy · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Okzhetpes 2-1 Ordabasy
Original prediction
Ordabasy
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.33 | 21.0% | 21.3% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.0% | 25.1% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 55.0% | 53.6% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–212%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Ordabasy
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Ordabasy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OkzhetpesWWLWL
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
OrdabasyWWWWW
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
OkzhetpesOrdabasy
50.7Attack66.7
55.1Defence76.8
56.5Form79.7
55.7Power75.3
0.78xG1.73