Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Okzhetpes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Okzhetpes 3-0 Kaspiy
Original prediction
Okzhetpes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.46 | 61.8% | 53.5% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 22.2% | 24.8% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 5.63 | 16.0% | 21.6% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Okzhetpes
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Okzhetpes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OkzhetpesWLWLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KaspiyDWWLL
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
OkzhetpesKaspiy
50.0Attack36.9
56.0Defence53.6
57.1Form39.3
56.1Power46.0
1.54xG0.86