Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Okzhetpes · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Okzhetpes are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Irtysh are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Okzhetpes hold an 11.7-point power-rating edge (53.0 v 41.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Premier League, while Okzhetpes holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Okzhetpes
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
13.9%
Okzhetpes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20