Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
O'Higgins are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Sao Paulo are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Sao Paulo hold an 8.0-point power-rating edge (56.0 v 64.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.6% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80