Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
O'Higgins are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Bahia are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bahia hold a 3.7-point power-rating edge (50.3 v 54.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.2% in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80