Ogre Unitedvs
FK Liepaja
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 9/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FK Liepaja · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ogre United 2-2 FK Liepaja
Original prediction
FK Liepaja
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.31 | 21.0% | 16.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.6% | 19.2% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 56.4% | 64.7% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
FK Liepaja
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
FK Liepaja has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00