Ogre Unitedvs
BFC Daugavpils
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 10/11/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BFC Daugavpils · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ogre United 1-2 BFC Daugavpils
Original prediction
BFC Daugavpils
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.89 | 23.3% | 22.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.7% | 25.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 53.0% | 52.2% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
BFC Daugavpils
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
BFC Daugavpils has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20