Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oţelul · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oţelul 1-1 FC Bacau
Original prediction
Oţelul
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.6% | 42.4% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 23.0% | 26.7% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 4.68 | 19.4% | 30.9% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Oţelul
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Oţelul has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OţelulLLLDW
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FC BacauDWWLD
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
OţelulFC Bacau
27.8Attack61.1
61.1Defence27.8
27.8Form50.0
41.8Power46.6
1.61xG1.49