Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oberwart · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oberwart 3-1 Parndorf
Original prediction
Oberwart
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.0% | 44.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.3% | 22.6% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.6% | 33.0% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Oberwart
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Oberwart has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OberwartLLWWW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ParndorfLDWLW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
OberwartParndorf
66.7Attack61.9
47.6Defence52.4
57.1Form52.4
57.4Power54.6
1.98xG1.67