Oakland Rootsvs
Phoenix Rising
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/27/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oakland Roots · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oakland Roots 3-0 Phoenix Rising
Original prediction
Oakland Roots
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.8% | 36.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 28.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 34.5% | 35.4% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Oakland Roots
Probability
36.2%
Model confidence
36.2%
Oakland Roots has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60