Oakland Rootsvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oakland Roots 1-4 Lexington
Original prediction
Lexington
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 41.1% | 35.8% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.3% | 26.8% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 32.6% | 37.4% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40