Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nyköping · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nyköping 4-1 Karlslund
Original prediction
Nyköping
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 16:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 65.3% | 52.6% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.80 | 19.3% | 24.9% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 6.00 | 15.4% | 22.5% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Nyköping
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Nyköping has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NyköpingDWLWW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
KarlslundWDWLD
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
NyköpingKarlslund
54.2Attack51.4
68.1Defence47.2
59.7Form43.1
60.5Power48.5
1.96xG0.89