NB I
Nyiregyhaza
Home
Ujpest
AwayThe model projects 1.79 xG for Nyiregyhaza and 1.52 xG for Ujpest — strong and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.27), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.
The model projects a combined xG of 3.31 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Nyiregyhaza's Attack Score (94) vs Ujpest's Defensive Stability (27) and Ujpest's attack (34) vs Nyiregyhaza's defence (91) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesNyiregyhazaUjpestProbability breakdown
Nyiregyhaza leads with 41% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Nyiregyhaza Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0
Nyiregyhaza host Ujpest in NB I. Nyiregyhaza have recorded LLWWDW in recent matches while Ujpest arrive with a run of WDDDWL. These sides have met 9 times recently, averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
Nyiregyhaza have a structural home advantage that the model quantifies directly. Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams — empirically derived from home sides scoring 10–15% more goals on their own ground. The Elo model gives Nyiregyhaza a 63% expected score in this fixture. When the underlying metrics are otherwise close, home advantage is often the decisive tipping factor.
Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Nyiregyhaza, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Ujpest score first, the game becomes genuinely open.
Risk factors
- ⚠Nyiregyhaza have been conceding 1.57 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
- ⚠These sides have drawn 4 of their last 9 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
- ⚠The xG gap is narrow at 0.27 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
Recent form
Nyiregyhaza
Ujpest
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nyiregyhaza vs Ujpest?
GoalVio's model predicts Nyiregyhaza to win with 41% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Nyiregyhaza vs Ujpest?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.
Will both teams score in Nyiregyhaza vs Ujpest?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nyiregyhaza vs Ujpest?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.